"Last week, CNN announced a deal with Kalshi, a federally regulated online exchange where Americans can wager on current events, from basketball games and congressional elections to whether it will rain tomorrow in New York City. This marked Kalshi's first partnership with a major news organization and, according to several close observers of the media business and gambling industry, could foreshadow a deluge of similar deals."
"Gambling has been creeping into political coverage for a while. Prediction markets, as sites like Kalshi are called, use odds that can also be interpreted as probabilities, and, because those odds reflect the distilled wisdom of everyone willing to put skin in the game, they have the allure of a crystal ball. A prediction market associated with the magazine Le Point, for example, has anticipated the results of the past two French Presidential elections more accurately than top polling firms."
Kalshi, a federally regulated online exchange, enables Americans to wager on current events ranging from sports and elections to weather. CNN announced a partnership with Kalshi, marking Kalshi's first deal with a major news organization and signaling potential for many similar collaborations. Prediction markets convert bets into odds that can be interpreted as probabilities and reflect the aggregated judgments of participants. Such markets have proven accurate in some contests, as a Le Point–associated market predicted recent French presidential elections better than top pollsters. News coverage has begun integrating market odds into political and policy reporting, and anchors have presented market prices as signals of public expectation.
Read at The New Yorker
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