"On the one hand, sentiment surveys paint a picture of a financially strained shopper. Nearly half of Americans (47%) say they're worried they won't be able to afford gifts this year, according to research by Narvar, a post-purchase platform vendor. Two out of three plan to cut back. Deloitte is forecasting a 10% drop in average individual holiday spend, and PwC puts the decline at 5%."
"But the big-picture forecasts? They tell a very different story. Mastercard, Visa, Adobe and the National Retail Federation all project U.S. retail sales will grow between 3.6% and 4.6% year over year, with ecommerce expected to hit a record $253.4 billion. The truth is, both views are technically correct. And that disconnect is exactly what marketers need to navigate. Rising sales, shrinking carts Let's start with the math. Most of that projected growth is nominal - not real."
Consumers report financial strain during the holidays: 47% worry they cannot afford gifts and two-thirds plan to cut back. Forecasters such as Deloitte and PwC predict declines in average individual holiday spend of roughly 5%–10%. At the same time, major retail forecasts show overall U.S. retail sales growing about 3.6%–4.6% and ecommerce reaching a record $253.4 billion. Much of the aggregate growth is nominal, driven by inflation and new tariffs rather than higher volumes. Higher-income households are propping up total sales while budget-focused shoppers scrutinize spending and prioritize trusted brands.
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