Recent data suggests that Donald Trump leads amongst less engaged voters like those who voted in the 2020 presidential election or have no voting history by a significant margin of 14%. If voter turnout increased, Trump could benefit over Biden.
While President Biden leads among more regular voters such as those who participated in the 2022 primary election or the 2022 midterms, he trails behind with voters who participated only in the 2020 presidential election. This signifies a shift in voter dynamics favoring Trump in the upcoming elections.
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