#election-dynamics

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#democratic-party

It's getting hard to see how Biden can stay in the race

Biden faces challenges with slipping polls and calls to step down, impacting his political position.

The Debate Hurt Biden, but the Real Shift Has Been Happening for Years

The first presidential debate did not fundamentally change the race, but it reinforced the political decline of President Biden.

America's Unstable Politics

American politics was historically stable but recent events indicate growing political instability.

Opinion | Black Men Are Waiting for a Democratic Party That Delivers for Them

Black men face significant disparities in education, employment, and health compared to white men, raising questions about political allegiance.

It's Time To Vote | Defector

Voter turnout and early polling indicate a contentious 2024 election, but blaming candidates is misguided amidst an unpredictable political landscape.

Opinion | Democrats Can Become the Party of Insurgency Again

There is ongoing tension between left and centrist Democrats over ideological direction, significantly impacting election outcomes and voter perceptions.

It's getting hard to see how Biden can stay in the race

Biden faces challenges with slipping polls and calls to step down, impacting his political position.

The Debate Hurt Biden, but the Real Shift Has Been Happening for Years

The first presidential debate did not fundamentally change the race, but it reinforced the political decline of President Biden.

America's Unstable Politics

American politics was historically stable but recent events indicate growing political instability.

Opinion | Black Men Are Waiting for a Democratic Party That Delivers for Them

Black men face significant disparities in education, employment, and health compared to white men, raising questions about political allegiance.

It's Time To Vote | Defector

Voter turnout and early polling indicate a contentious 2024 election, but blaming candidates is misguided amidst an unpredictable political landscape.

Opinion | Democrats Can Become the Party of Insurgency Again

There is ongoing tension between left and centrist Democrats over ideological direction, significantly impacting election outcomes and voter perceptions.
moredemocratic-party
#politics

Trump's America': His Comeback Victory Signals a Different Kind of Country

Kamala Harris's view of Trump as a temporary anomaly contrasts with his re-emergence as a significant force reshaping America.

Opinion | The Curling Theory of Campaigns Proves Itself Again

Campaign dynamics are largely influenced by uncontrollable factors like the economy, likened to a curling stone that candidates cannot fully direct.

Trump's America': His Comeback Victory Signals a Different Kind of Country

Kamala Harris's view of Trump as a temporary anomaly contrasts with his re-emergence as a significant force reshaping America.

Opinion | The Curling Theory of Campaigns Proves Itself Again

Campaign dynamics are largely influenced by uncontrollable factors like the economy, likened to a curling stone that candidates cannot fully direct.
morepolitics

OPINION: Germany's coalition lost its way and the path forward is unclear

Germany's traffic light coalition collapses, reflecting deep political instability and failure to address critical economic and societal challenges.

Women Vote. They Will Again in 2024.

Women continue to fight for reproductive rights and equality, facing the same challenges decades later as they did in the 1960s.
#kamala-harris

Harris raised $200 million in first week of White House campaign and signed up 170,000 volunteers

Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign raised $200 million post President Biden's endorsement, with a significant portion coming from first-time contributors.

Kamala Harris campaign raises $310m in July as presidential race is transformed

Kamala Harris's campaign raised $310 million in July, surpassing Trump's fundraising, indicating an engaged Democratic base.

RFK Jr. Could Still Be a Spoiler-But for Whom?

Kamala Harris joining the race has flipped the dynamic of third-party candidate impact from benefiting Trump to favoring the Democratic side.

Prediction markets suddenly shift away from Trump as campaign enters final stretch

Kamala Harris has surged ahead in prediction markets just days before the election, narrowing Trump's odds significantly.

Column: How Arnold Schwarzenegger and the California recall inform the Harris-Trump race

The unprecedented 100-day presidential campaign highlights the impact of rapid political changes and candidate novelty on voter engagement.

October surprise: Trump just blew a huge lead, and the Madison Square Garden rally started the drop, says top data scientist

Trump's campaign is experiencing a significant decline, making a Harris victory increasingly likely.

Harris raised $200 million in first week of White House campaign and signed up 170,000 volunteers

Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign raised $200 million post President Biden's endorsement, with a significant portion coming from first-time contributors.

Kamala Harris campaign raises $310m in July as presidential race is transformed

Kamala Harris's campaign raised $310 million in July, surpassing Trump's fundraising, indicating an engaged Democratic base.

RFK Jr. Could Still Be a Spoiler-But for Whom?

Kamala Harris joining the race has flipped the dynamic of third-party candidate impact from benefiting Trump to favoring the Democratic side.

Prediction markets suddenly shift away from Trump as campaign enters final stretch

Kamala Harris has surged ahead in prediction markets just days before the election, narrowing Trump's odds significantly.

Column: How Arnold Schwarzenegger and the California recall inform the Harris-Trump race

The unprecedented 100-day presidential campaign highlights the impact of rapid political changes and candidate novelty on voter engagement.

October surprise: Trump just blew a huge lead, and the Madison Square Garden rally started the drop, says top data scientist

Trump's campaign is experiencing a significant decline, making a Harris victory increasingly likely.
morekamala-harris

Lioness Recap: Lie Craft

Trust is a luxury not afforded to CIA operatives, complicating relationships and decision-making.

This Election Season, Most Races Aren't Races at All

This election season shows record rates of uncontested races, with 70% of elective offices having only one candidate, signaling issues in democratic competition.

Enough Is Enough: No More Polls!

Polling distorts public understanding and reinforces misleading campaign narratives, contributing to political confusion and misinformation.
#polls

Final New York Times Poll Shows Harris And Trump Tied Nationally, WSJ Has Trump Up Three Points

The 2024 presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is neck-and-neck, with polls showing them tied at 48% each.

Fox News Poll Shows Election Denier Kari Lake Getting Destroyed in Arizona Senate Race

Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Kari Lake in Arizona Senate race polls, indicating a strong advantage, particularly with women voters and independents.

Final New York Times Poll Shows Harris And Trump Tied Nationally, WSJ Has Trump Up Three Points

The 2024 presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is neck-and-neck, with polls showing them tied at 48% each.

Fox News Poll Shows Election Denier Kari Lake Getting Destroyed in Arizona Senate Race

Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Kari Lake in Arizona Senate race polls, indicating a strong advantage, particularly with women voters and independents.
morepolls
#republican-strategy

More Republicans Appear to Be Voting Early, Despite Trump's Mixed Messages

Republicans are successfully encouraging early voting, gaining traction among Trump's supporters, contrasting with previous strategies that discouraged alternative voting methods.

Republican network funds liberal third-party candidates to hurt the Harris vote

Republican operatives are deploying strategies to support third-party candidates to weaken Democratic voter support.

More Republicans Appear to Be Voting Early, Despite Trump's Mixed Messages

Republicans are successfully encouraging early voting, gaining traction among Trump's supporters, contrasting with previous strategies that discouraged alternative voting methods.

Republican network funds liberal third-party candidates to hurt the Harris vote

Republican operatives are deploying strategies to support third-party candidates to weaken Democratic voter support.
morerepublican-strategy
#third-party-candidates

Biden Has All But Caught Up With Trump in Polls

Biden is closing the gap with Trump in national head-to-head polling, with a minimal 0.2% lead for Trump.
Trump maintains a slight lead in five-way national polls, with third-party candidates affecting the dynamics.

Could third-party 'spoiler' candidates disrupt the US election?

Third-party candidates could significantly influence election outcomes in close races, particularly in swing states, despite unlikely paths to victory.

Biden Has All But Caught Up With Trump in Polls

Biden is closing the gap with Trump in national head-to-head polling, with a minimal 0.2% lead for Trump.
Trump maintains a slight lead in five-way national polls, with third-party candidates affecting the dynamics.

Could third-party 'spoiler' candidates disrupt the US election?

Third-party candidates could significantly influence election outcomes in close races, particularly in swing states, despite unlikely paths to victory.
morethird-party-candidates
#donald-trump

Trump's Conviction Jolts the Race. But Will It Influence the Outcome?

Donald Trump's conviction on felony counts raises significant questions about the 2024 race and challenges the country's political traditions.

Monday Briefing

Trump manipulates scandals to his advantage, portraying himself as a victim.
Voter participation effect in non-swing states stems from local elections and sending political messages.

Trump Claims He Will Get Majority Of The Libertarian Votes' After Getting Booed At The Convention

Former President Trump claims he will attract a majority of Libertarian votes in the upcoming general election.

Despicable Human Being': Mitch McConnell Privately Said He Couldn't Wait For Stupid' Trump to Leave Office, Per Report

Mitch McConnell's private views on Trump reveal a critical disdain that contrasts sharply with his public support.

Larry Hogan, Maryland's Former Governor, Wins G.O.P. Senate Primary

Larry Hogan, a former Maryland governor, won the Republican Senate primary setting up a competitive race in a deeply blue state amid party dynamics influenced by Trump's image.

Trump's Conviction Jolts the Race. But Will It Influence the Outcome?

Donald Trump's conviction on felony counts raises significant questions about the 2024 race and challenges the country's political traditions.

Monday Briefing

Trump manipulates scandals to his advantage, portraying himself as a victim.
Voter participation effect in non-swing states stems from local elections and sending political messages.

Trump Claims He Will Get Majority Of The Libertarian Votes' After Getting Booed At The Convention

Former President Trump claims he will attract a majority of Libertarian votes in the upcoming general election.

Despicable Human Being': Mitch McConnell Privately Said He Couldn't Wait For Stupid' Trump to Leave Office, Per Report

Mitch McConnell's private views on Trump reveal a critical disdain that contrasts sharply with his public support.

Larry Hogan, Maryland's Former Governor, Wins G.O.P. Senate Primary

Larry Hogan, a former Maryland governor, won the Republican Senate primary setting up a competitive race in a deeply blue state amid party dynamics influenced by Trump's image.
moredonald-trump

We Need to Stop Paying Attention to Undecided' Voters

Undecided voters, often overestimated, play a minimal role in elections, while swing voters are more pivotal and make up a significant portion of the electorate.
#trump-vs-harris

All the signs Trump lost the debate

Trump's premature declaration of victory during the debate suggests desperation rather than confidence, indicating a potential loss in his campaign.

Harris vs. Trump Polls Are Close, But Somebody Could Win Big

Polls indicate a tight race between Trump and Harris in key battleground states, demonstrating the volatility of voter sentiment.

All the signs Trump lost the debate

Trump's premature declaration of victory during the debate suggests desperation rather than confidence, indicating a potential loss in his campaign.

Harris vs. Trump Polls Are Close, But Somebody Could Win Big

Polls indicate a tight race between Trump and Harris in key battleground states, demonstrating the volatility of voter sentiment.
moretrump-vs-harris
#political-strategy

Trump grows lead over Biden after disastrous debate - NYT poll

Biden reassures staffers about his candidacy despite polling showing challenges.
Polls indicate Trump leading over Biden, with concerns about Biden's age.
Biden campaign suggests poll results as outliers and highlight tight race.

House Republicans plot major push into Biden country

The Republican Party is planning to contest House districts won by Democrats in double digits, signaling a strong desire to win back political ground.

The political 'flip-flop' attack doesn't always pack a punch for voters

Voters are generally indifferent to political flip-flops if the new position aligns with their preferences, suggesting attacks on consistency may lack impact.

Elon Musk's Twitter coup has harmed the right. They are now simply too online' | Paolo Gerbaudo

The 2016 election exposed the risks of social media echo chambers, now mirrored in the right's complacent online presence.

Chris Mason: What happens next after shock Tory leadership vote

James Cleverly's elimination highlights a shift in Conservative party dynamics, emphasizing changes in voting behavior among MPs.

Fox's Brit Hume Slams Lara Trump's Stupid' Attack on GOP Senate Candidate: Political Malpractice'

Attacking Larry Hogan, a strong Republican Senate nominee in a critical race, is seen as political malpractice by Trump's media surrogates.

Trump grows lead over Biden after disastrous debate - NYT poll

Biden reassures staffers about his candidacy despite polling showing challenges.
Polls indicate Trump leading over Biden, with concerns about Biden's age.
Biden campaign suggests poll results as outliers and highlight tight race.

House Republicans plot major push into Biden country

The Republican Party is planning to contest House districts won by Democrats in double digits, signaling a strong desire to win back political ground.

The political 'flip-flop' attack doesn't always pack a punch for voters

Voters are generally indifferent to political flip-flops if the new position aligns with their preferences, suggesting attacks on consistency may lack impact.

Elon Musk's Twitter coup has harmed the right. They are now simply too online' | Paolo Gerbaudo

The 2016 election exposed the risks of social media echo chambers, now mirrored in the right's complacent online presence.

Chris Mason: What happens next after shock Tory leadership vote

James Cleverly's elimination highlights a shift in Conservative party dynamics, emphasizing changes in voting behavior among MPs.

Fox's Brit Hume Slams Lara Trump's Stupid' Attack on GOP Senate Candidate: Political Malpractice'

Attacking Larry Hogan, a strong Republican Senate nominee in a critical race, is seen as political malpractice by Trump's media surrogates.
morepolitical-strategy

That's Simply Not Accurate!' CNN Analyst Rejects Narrative' Jack Smith Dropped Trump Bombshell For Election

Elliot Williams defends the timing of the Special Counsel's filing as court-mandated, dismissing claims of political motives 30 days before the election.

9 takeaways from the VP debate

The debate focused more on presidential candidates than on the vice-presidential hopefuls themselves, highlighting significant political contrasts heading into the election.

Russell Findlay appointed leader of Scottish Conservatives

Russell Findlay has been appointed leader of the Scottish Conservatives during a tumultuous period, signaling a shift in party dynamics.
#presidential-campaigns

Harris, Trump go light on religion in '24 campaign

Religious faith has historically been significant in U.S. presidential campaigns, but its prominence is diminishing in recent elections.

The Biden-Trump Rerun: A Nation Craving Change Gets More of the Same

The promise of change in presidential campaigns is a long-standing appeal to American voters.
The current election presents a choice between continuation and restoration, lacking a fresh face for voters to rally behind.

Harris, Trump go light on religion in '24 campaign

Religious faith has historically been significant in U.S. presidential campaigns, but its prominence is diminishing in recent elections.

The Biden-Trump Rerun: A Nation Craving Change Gets More of the Same

The promise of change in presidential campaigns is a long-standing appeal to American voters.
The current election presents a choice between continuation and restoration, lacking a fresh face for voters to rally behind.
morepresidential-campaigns
#republican-party

GOP Is Using Imagery of White Women Victims to Stoke Anti-Immigrant Fear

Immigrant men portrayed as threats to White women drive Republican immigration policy
Rhetoric around immigrant men endangering White women can lead to harmful policies and threats to immigrants

Neither Trump nor Biden can win without Latinos: an X-Ray of 36 million voters

The US is shifting towards a future where non-Hispanic whites will be less than half of the population by 2060, a reality that challenges Trump's anti-immigrant stance.

Karl Rove Dismisses Donald Trump Jr.'s Political Future: He's Busy Trying to Figure Out Which Girlfriend He Actually Has'

Karl Rove dismissed Donald Trump Jr.'s political future, suggesting he's distracted by personal life instead of focusing on political leadership.

She's Fighting Big Oil in Texas. But Republicans Want to Make Her D.A.

Republicans struggle to find a candidate to oppose a vulnerable Democratic district attorney in a conservative part of Texas.
A surprising oil-and-gas lawyer with unconventional background steps up as a Republican challenger due to concerns about crime in the area.
Her candidacy marks the first contested election for the top prosecutor job in the region since 2008.

GOP Is Using Imagery of White Women Victims to Stoke Anti-Immigrant Fear

Immigrant men portrayed as threats to White women drive Republican immigration policy
Rhetoric around immigrant men endangering White women can lead to harmful policies and threats to immigrants

Neither Trump nor Biden can win without Latinos: an X-Ray of 36 million voters

The US is shifting towards a future where non-Hispanic whites will be less than half of the population by 2060, a reality that challenges Trump's anti-immigrant stance.

Karl Rove Dismisses Donald Trump Jr.'s Political Future: He's Busy Trying to Figure Out Which Girlfriend He Actually Has'

Karl Rove dismissed Donald Trump Jr.'s political future, suggesting he's distracted by personal life instead of focusing on political leadership.

She's Fighting Big Oil in Texas. But Republicans Want to Make Her D.A.

Republicans struggle to find a candidate to oppose a vulnerable Democratic district attorney in a conservative part of Texas.
A surprising oil-and-gas lawyer with unconventional background steps up as a Republican challenger due to concerns about crime in the area.
Her candidacy marks the first contested election for the top prosecutor job in the region since 2008.
morerepublican-party

Muddled politics and multiple arrests: who is alleged Trump would-be assassin?

Ryan Routh's political orientation is marked by unpredictable shifts and contradictions, reflecting a complicated relationship with candidates across the spectrum.

Sadiq Khan received thousands of abusive messages after being re-elected mayor of London

The study highlights excessive online abuse towards politicians, especially in the context of major elections, indicating a rising trend in political hostility.
#campaign-strategy

This Is Exactly What the Trump Team Feared

A campaign previously optimized against Joe Biden now requires reinvention.

Trump Has Turned Over an Old Leaf

Trump's 2024 presidential campaign began with a professional team managing the candidate, but he reverted to his old habits in response to challenges.

This Is Exactly What the Trump Team Feared

A campaign previously optimized against Joe Biden now requires reinvention.

Trump Has Turned Over an Old Leaf

Trump's 2024 presidential campaign began with a professional team managing the candidate, but he reverted to his old habits in response to challenges.
morecampaign-strategy

Survey: Women oppose leaving abortion to the states

Trump's soft stance on abortion contrasts sharply with the strong opposition among women to leaving abortion decisions to the states.

The Cult of Kamala

Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have inspired fervent support akin to a cult of personality.

Trump Says He Wants to Cut Taxes. Harris's Plan Mirrors Biden's.

Trump's tax cut promises could add $4 trillion to national debt, while Harris plans to reduce deficit by $3 trillion by raising taxes on corporations and high earners.

In France, the president has too much power Macron's hubris shows why we need a new system | Charlotte Minvielle

Emmanuel Macron's shock decision led to successful left alliance victory, challenging traditional political norms in France.

Introducing Coach Walz: Five Takeaways from Philadelphia

The debut rally for Vice President Harris with Gov. Walz showed excitement and energy for the campaign against Trump, aiming to electrify voters for the upcoming election.

Race for Competitive Washington Congressional Seat Turns Into Rematch

The upcoming Congressional race in Washington State between Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Joe Kent is critical and will determine House balance of power.
#vice-president-kamala-harris

Embattled Democrats Express New Hope With Harris at Top of Ticket

Senator Martin Heinrich and other Democratic incumbents felt relieved after Biden exited the race, shifting the political landscape in their favor.

House Republican Rips DEI Hire' Kamala Harris: What About White Females?'

Vice President Kamala Harris viewed by some as a DEI hire.

Embattled Democrats Express New Hope With Harris at Top of Ticket

Senator Martin Heinrich and other Democratic incumbents felt relieved after Biden exited the race, shifting the political landscape in their favor.

House Republican Rips DEI Hire' Kamala Harris: What About White Females?'

Vice President Kamala Harris viewed by some as a DEI hire.
morevice-president-kamala-harris

Who Wants To Talk About The Issues | Defector

Campaign polling in 2024 shows Harris trailing Trump narrowly within the margin of error, signaling a return to pre-crisis dynamics.

What issues do Trump and Harris want to fight the election on?

Presidential candidates engage in aggressive attacks during speeches.
The campaign is characterized by intense rhetoric focusing on contrasting ideologies and personal attacks.
#labour-party

Business bosses desert Tories and defect to Labour

Over 120 business leaders endorse Labour, citing 14 years of Conservative instability, stagnation, and lack of focus, urging change under Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves.

Greens sees chance of second MP as Labour voters waver in Bristol

Labour voters feeling disillusioned with the party's shift to the center ground.
Green party gaining traction in Bristol Central due to discontent among traditional Labour voters.

Business bosses desert Tories and defect to Labour

Over 120 business leaders endorse Labour, citing 14 years of Conservative instability, stagnation, and lack of focus, urging change under Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves.

Greens sees chance of second MP as Labour voters waver in Bristol

Labour voters feeling disillusioned with the party's shift to the center ground.
Green party gaining traction in Bristol Central due to discontent among traditional Labour voters.
morelabour-party

Trump Is Winning-But Don't Believe the Polls

Positive turnout for Trump in traditionally Democrat areas reflects hints of unusual election dynamics.

Seventeen Percent of Voters Blame Biden for the End of Roe

One in five voters in battleground states inaccurately attribute responsibility for abortion bans to President Biden.

The View's Alyssa Farah Griffin Calls 2024 Election My Ninth Circle of Hell' After Learning About RFK Jr.'s Brain Worm

2024 election cycle likened to ninth circle of hell due to Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s brain parasite admission.

Could this be the closest London mayoral election ever?

London's mayoral race is expected to have a tight finish, with key factors at play like second preference votes and potential loss of votes to other candidates.

Kari Lake's own words come back to haunt her following shock Arizona ruling

The Arizona Supreme Court upheld a draconian 1864 law banning abortion, with limited exceptions.
Kari Lake, a Senatorial candidate against abortion, is facing challenges due to her stance on the recent court ruling.

No Labels, which sought to challenge Biden and Trump, ends its 2024 presidential bid

No Labels decided not to nominate a third-party presidential candidate due to the difficulty in finding credible candidates with a path to winning the White House.
The organization had aimed to offer a 'unity ticket' with centrist candidates as an alternative to Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

Travis County DA Jose Garza maintains a commanding 30-plus-point lead over Jeremy Sylestine - Austin Monitor

José Garza leads by 30 points over opponent in the Democratic primary after early voting.
Sylestine outraised Garza by a significant amount, with the bulk of support from high-dollar GOP donors.

Latino political power emerges in South L.A.

South L.A. has seen a shift from Black to Latino majority.
Tension exists between Black leaders and Latino candidates for political representation in South L.A.

Science reveals how politics turns us all into our worst selves

People often show different moral standards in political versus personal matters, leading to potential conflicts in the upcoming elections.
A University of Nebraska-Lincoln study indicates that individuals may act immorally in pursuit of political goals, affecting relationships and societal discourse.

Biden supporters mostly back him in 2024 election because they oppose Trump, poll finds

Over half of Biden supporters are motivated to prevent Trump's return to the White House.

Biden Shut the Border to Asylum Seekers. The Question Is Whether the Order Can Be Enforced.

President Biden signed executive order to shut down U.S.-Mexico border to asylum seekers, impacting immigration policy and election dynamics.

Tim Sheehy won the Montana GOP primary. November's race may decide Senate control

Tim Sheehy, a former Navy Seal and political newcomer, won the Republican nomination for Montana's U.S. Senate seat to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester.

What Presidential Election? So Far, the Stock Market Doesn't Care.

The stock market remains indifferent to political fluctuations despite the Trump-Vance ticket's current favoritism.

The Trump campaign keeps winning the viral photo game

Former President Trump orchestrated another powerful photo moment with Hulk Hogan's support gesture towards Trump and JD Vance for 2024.

Dems Raise Alarms Over Trump Chances Over Biden in New York: Truly Believe We're a Battleground State Now'

Democrats are concerned about New York's shift from a reliable blue state to a potential battleground state, impacting down-ballot races and control of Congress.

Starmer: Early prison release to carry on 'in all likelihood'

Decentralization of power in UK with focus on Wales vs. Westminster dynamics.

Leubsdorf: Expect another closely divided Congress next year

Both parties face challenges in gaining strong majorities in Congress, potentially leading to slim margins and difficulty in passing legislation.

All Lost Reelection': CNN Data Guru Explains Absolutely Dire Historic Trend For Biden After Losing Debate to Trump

Trump's first debate victory by 34 points is a significant turnaround from previous debates, potentially impacting voter perceptions and future election outcomes.

Biden Aides Update Their LinkedIn Pages After Debate: Report

Some Democratic aides updated their LinkedIn profiles after Biden's poor debate performance, sparking concerns about his fitness as a candidate.

Who is still voting Conservative how Brexit and age define the Tory party faithful

The collapse in Tory support raises questions about who remains loyal, with themes of fear towards Labour's economic policies and skepticism about a potential Labour-led government.
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