Even more strongly that it would be a mistake! ... You push him out, you lose the incumbency key and you lose the contest key. So instead of starting two keys up and having six more keys to fall to predict the Democrats defeat, they start two keys down and only four more keys would have to fall.
Moreover, how often, since the turn of the 20th century, has the party holding the White House ever won in an open seat with an uncertain or contested nomination? The answer is never.
#presidential-election-prediction #professor-allan-lichtman #biden-trump-debate #democratic-party #incumbency-key
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