The model update suggests that Trump has a 52.4% chance of winning the Electoral College while Harris has a 47.3% chance of prevailing, making Trump the favorite.
According to Silver, the one big reason for Trump's advantage is Pennsylvania, which he identified as the tipping-point state...and where it's been quite a while since we've seen a poll showing Harris leading.
Silver says that the model will adjust, however, if her polling numbers remain steady in the coming weeks...there's another, longer-term concern for Harris.
The model puts a lot of weight on this recent data because of all the changes in the race, he continued. And you can see why it thinks this is a problem for her.
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