"Prediction markets like Kalshi have found a loophole in California's sports betting ban, allowing users to bet on Super Bowl outcomes. State lawmakers, gaming tribes and the NFL oppose the platforms, which operate as federally regulated derivatives and avoid state gambling oversight and taxation. Multiple states are suing to block prediction markets, arguing they're unlicensed gambling that violates state law and tribal agreements."
"Green Day says "MAGA" while playing during the Super Bowl opening ceremony, Bad Bunny follows by starting off the halftime show with "Baile Inolvidable," and soccer star Lionel Messi takes in the game at Santa Clara's Levi's Stadium. Each of those possibilities is available to put money on via prediction market behemoth Kalshi, but it's other offerings by Kalshi and similar platforms that have irked California lawmakers, gaming tribes and even the NFL: wagers on the game that mimic traditional sports bets."
Prediction markets like Kalshi exploit a federal-derivatives classification to offer bets on Super Bowl outcomes and political events while avoiding California's sports betting ban and state oversight. State lawmakers, gaming tribes and the NFL oppose these platforms, and multiple states have filed lawsuits arguing the markets are unlicensed gambling that violate state law and tribal compacts. Kalshi reported $27 million in total volume before last year's Super Bowl and more than $150 million this year on its Super Bowl market, with users assigning a 68% probability to a Seattle Seahawks win. Major operators such as FanDuel, DraftKings and Fanatics have launched similar markets in states without legalized sports betting.
Read at Los Angeles Times
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