"The most significant political event of 2026 will not be political but judicial the second embezzlement trial of Marine Le Pen. If Le Pen is acquitted (which is unlikely) or if her ban from electoral politics is suspended (which is just possible), she may well become President of the Republic in May 2027. If the ban is confirmed, her understudy Jordan Bardella, 30, will run for head of state."
"The European Union is unlikely to survive a President Le Pen or a President Bardella. The judgement is expected in June or July. Until then, France and Europe must hold its breath. Here are my political predictions for the Le Pen trial and the other foreseeable, political events of 2026. Le Pen's conviction will be upheld. The evidence given to her first trial was overwhelming: she organised a scheme to fund her party by cheating EU taxpayers and employing fake assistants in Brussels and Strasbourg."
France faces a year of frantic immobility before the 2027 presidential election that could change national and European politics. The pivotal event in 2026 is the second embezzlement trial and appeal of Marine Le Pen, with judgment expected in June or July. If Le Pen is cleared or her electoral ban suspended, she could win the presidency in May 2027; if the ban is upheld, Jordan Bardella, 30, will be the Rassemblement National candidate. Opinion polls slightly favor Bardella but are unreliable. Conviction is expected to be upheld, based on evidence of a scheme to fund the party by cheating EU taxpayers and employing fake assistants. There is a legal possibility that the Constitutional Council could review the ban, but the ban is likely to remain; Bardella is seen as more beatable than Le Pen if a strong mainstream candidate emerges.
#marine-le-pen #jordan-bardella #2027-french-presidential-election #embezzlement-trial #european-union
Read at www.thelocal.fr
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