The NATO Research Division is focused on identifying potential crisis scenarios, particularly threats from Russia and evolving global dynamics like China's influence. Director Florence Gaub emphasizes the importance of spotting "weak signals" in strategic foresight to prepare earlier for unexpected changes. Their analysis includes various alarming scenarios, like nuclear threats and regional conflicts. By engaging with NATO and member-state officials through research and exercises, the group aims to reduce surprise and improve response times in this changing security landscape.
"We're looking for something that changes, that takes a different direction than expected or anticipated," Florence Gaub, the director of the Research Division at the Defense College, told Business Insider.
"The weak signal is, of course, in strategic foresight, the holy grail because if you spot a trend very early, you buy yourself a lot more time to respond to it," Gaub said.
"Scenarios also have the benefit of decreasing the element of surprise and reducing response time," Gaub added.
Such work has become increasingly important in recent years as NATO has faced a rapidly evolving security environment, with the Russia-Ukraine war looming on its eastern flank.
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