The Strait of Hormuz is today's energy chokepoint. China is tomorrow's.
Briefly

The Strait of Hormuz is today's energy chokepoint. China is tomorrow's.
"In about 20 years, Iran will likely be unable to throttle the global economy by closing this maritime chokepoint, as it did in response to the latest U.S.-Israeli war on its Islamic regime."
"Decarbonization will help insulate the world economy against sudden oil price shocks like those caused by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz."
"Whether the number of EVs on the road grows quickly or slowly, it is safe to assume the vehicles will make up a significantly larger part of America's car fleet 20 years from now than they do today."
"In November 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) introduced a Current Policies Scenario, projecting that global oil demand would peak in 2030."
The Strait of Hormuz, named after the Zoroastrian god Ahura Mazda, will become less significant to the global economy in 20 years. Decarbonization and the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) will reduce reliance on oil from this chokepoint. As of early 2026, EVs account for nearly 2% of U.S. vehicles, with projections for 2050 ranging from 11% to 75%. Factors influencing EV adoption include recent sales slumps and rising gas prices due to geopolitical tensions, which may drive consumer interest in electrification.
Read at Big Think
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