"The worst-case impacts of the climate crisis for the UK have been laid bare by scientists, ranging from a scorching 4C rise in temperatures to a 2-metre rise in sea level. Another scenario sees a plunge of 6C in temperature after the collapse of key Atlantic Ocean currents, massively disrupting farming and energy needs. The impacts, some of which are linked to climate tipping points, are seen as low probability but plausible."
"The probability of the extreme scenarios happening could not be calculated because of uncertainty about what action will be taken to tackle global heating and how the climate system will respond. Arnell said this made the analysis similar to national security risk assessments or the Bank of England's stress tests for the financial system. You couldn't have known what the probability of Russia invading Ukraine was, but you could have said this is what the consequences might be, he added."
Worst-case projections for the UK include a 4°C temperature rise and up to 2-metre sea-level rise, and a potential 6°C regional cooling from Atlantic current collapse that would disrupt farming and energy. Some impacts are linked to climate tipping points and are assessed as low-probability but plausible. A separate set of scenarios shows monthly temperatures possibly 6°C above average and rainfall tripling by century's end. Probabilities cannot be calculated because of uncertainties in mitigation actions and climate responses. The scenarios function like stress tests to inform long-term infrastructure decisions and accelerate emissions reductions.
Read at www.theguardian.com
Unable to calculate read time
Collection
[
|
...
]