Global warming amplifies wildfire health burden and reshapes inequality

"Global warming intensifies wildfires and exacerbates greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions1. However, global projections remain incomplete, hindering effective policy interventions amid uncertain warming futures2. Here, we developed an interpretable machine learning framework to project global burned areas and wildfire emissions. This framework accounts for the impacts of future climate change on fire activity and quantifies associated premature deaths and radiative forcing from fire-induced particulate matter (PM2.5)."

"Here we show that from 20102014 to 20952099, fire carbon emissions are projected to increase by 23% under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5. Increased fire-related aerosols reduce the 0.06 W m cooling effect north of 60N. Projections show a surge in premature deaths from wildfire smoke, reaching 1.40 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.662.25) million annually during 20952099, roughly 6 times higher than current levels."

"Africa is projected to experience the greatest rise in fire-related deaths (11-fold), driven by emission changes and an aging population. Europe and the U.S. would experience a 12-fold increase under SSP2-4.5, linked to rising fire occurrences in the mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere. Overall, the health burden would become more evenly distributed across nations of differing development levels than present patterns, underscoring the need for coordinated efforts."

An interpretable machine learning framework projects global burned areas and wildfire emissions under future climate scenarios. The framework incorporates climate-driven changes in fire activity and quantifies associated premature deaths and radiative forcing from fire-induced PM2.5. Under SSP2-4.5, fire carbon emissions rise 23% between 2010–2014 and 2095–2099. Fire-related aerosols reduce the high-latitude cooling by 0.06 W m−2 north of 60°N. Annual premature deaths from wildfire smoke are projected to reach 1.40 million (95% CI: 0.66–2.25) by 2095–2099. Africa, Europe, and the U.S. face large percentage increases, shifting the health burden toward more even global distribution and requiring coordinated responses.

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