"The immediate hit to the economy from a single brutal summer of heat, drought and flooding amounted to 0.26% of the EU's economic output in 2024, according to the rapid analysis, which has not been submitted for peer review but is based on relationships between weather and economic data that were published in an academic study this month. The greatest damage was done in Cyprus, Greece, Malta and Bulgaria each of which suffered short-term losses above 1% of their 2024 gross value added (GVA),"
"The economists from the University of Mannheim and the European Central Bank described the results as conservative because they did not account for the record-breaking wildfires that torched southern Europe last month or the compounding impact of extreme weather events that strike at the same time. Sehrish Usman, an economist at the University of Mannheim and the lead author of the study, said the study's timely estimates could help policymakers target support in the absence of official data."
Economists estimate at least 43bn in short-term economic losses from extreme summer weather across the EU, with costs expected to rise to 126bn by 2029. The immediate economic hit from heat, drought and flooding amounted to 0.26% of EU output in 2024. Cyprus, Greece, Malta and Bulgaria each suffered short-term losses above 1% of 2024 gross value added, followed by Spain, Italy and Portugal. Estimates are described as conservative because they exclude record wildfires and compounding simultaneous events. The analysis relies on published relationships between weather and economic data and links to University of Mannheim and ECB economists. Climate change greatly increased the likelihood of scorching fire weather, and planet-heating pollution amplified heatwave deaths.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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