The research by Callahan and Mankin highlights a method for quantifying the economic impacts of emissions over a limited number of years. By establishing causal relationships between climate change effectsâsuch as extreme temperatures and economic lossesâthe researchers have developed a flexible approach. They estimate costs attributed to companies based on their emissions contributions to global warming, exemplifying it with Chevron, which alone contributed significantly to warming, resulting in estimated damages between $800 billion and $3.6 trillion from 1991 to 2020, primarily affecting tropical nations.
Similarly, it's possible to calculate the impact of emissions within a limited number of years. For example, Callahan and Mankin note that internal oil company research suggested that climate change would be a problem back around 1980, and calculated the impact of emissions that occurred after people knew they were an issue.
To implement their method, the researchers perform lots of individual models, collectively providing the most probable costs and the likely range around them. First, they translate each company's emissions into the impact on the global mean surface temperature.
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