2024 is existential for Europe. If we end up in a situation where America stops helping Ukraine, which is a likely scenario, we have two choices. Either we say we do not have the means to help Ukraine any more and we go to a negotiation that is more favourable to Putin and look the other way, and as a result we encourage further aggression down the road not only in Ukraine but elsewhere. Or we put in motion the means to help Ukraine to be able to defend itself without the US, and that is what Macron advocated recently.
The polls are currently much more favourable to Trump than in 2016 and obviously we do not know what he will do in office, but Trump does not have to formally leave NATO to represent a challenge to the credibility of the alliance.
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