""Results contradict widespread expectations of LLM superiority," the authors wrote in the paper's abstract. "Time-trend analyses suggest gradual convergence with traditional channels, but projections indicate LLM will not achieve parity with organic search within the next year. These findings challenge narratives of LLMs as immediate 'Google killers,' while suggesting potential for long-term channel evolution.""
""There's so much noise about AI agents impacting commerce and so little data," said Juozas Kaziukėnas, an independent e-commerce analyst who reviewed the paper. "This study is one of the first to quantify how much traffic you could potentially get from ChatGPT and how much of that actually converts.""
Analysis of 12 months of first-party data from 973 e-commerce sites generating a combined $20 billion in annual revenue examined more than 50,000 transactions from ChatGPT referrals and 164 million transactions from traditional channels. Referral traffic from ChatGPT converted worse than Google Search, email, and affiliate links, and underperformed all channels except paid social. Conversion rate and revenue per session from ChatGPT referrals improved steadily during the period. Time-trend analyses indicate gradual convergence with traditional channels, but projections show ChatGPT referrals will not reach parity with organic search within the next year. OpenAI's Instant Checkout could improve conversions as AI agents gain shopping adoption.
Read at Modern Retail
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