For years, the conflict between Israel and Iran had unofficial but fairly clear rules, allowing the enemies to maintain an uneasy equilibrium in the Middle East. Neither wanted all-out war, so both kept within certain boundaries. At times of rising tension, they stepped back from the brink.
Scholars of game theory say this is a common pattern. In conflicts that simmer over many decades, tit-for-tat actions and reactions often develop into mutually understood rules of the game that deter open warfare.
The events of the past few weeks...have demonstrated that the old rules no longer apply. Now, the question is whether Israel and Iran will reach a new equilibrium that stops short of a full-blown conflict.
It sounds simple yet profound that wars - both fighting them and preventing them - are essentially games of prediction. The dangerous new mix of uncertainty and aggression could send the Middle East spiraling into all-out war.
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