Scientists at Carnegie Mellon University (CMU), Harvard University, and the University of Pennsylvania suggest cohort bias driven by societal change undermines risk assessment instruments (RAIs) used to evaluate crime likelihood.The researchers examined criminal histories of individuals in Chicago over 25 years, determining a machine learning tool forecasting the probability of arrest between ages 17 and 24 for cohorts born in the 1980s overpredicted that likelihood for cohorts born in the mid-1990s by up to 89%.
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