Economic forecasters surveyed by The Wall Street Journal last month generally predicted that inflation would be higher if Trump won than if Biden won. I agree.
Tariffs at the rates Trump is suggesting would be seriously inflationary, raising prices enough to reduce the typical family's purchasing power by 4 percent.
Trump's mercantilist view of trade suggests that his goal with tariffs is to eliminate the U.S. trade deficit, where we win if we run a trade surplus.
Analysts are still understating how inflationary a second Trump term could be due to his proposed tariffs, politicization of the Fed, and a weaker dollar.
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