Our forecast uses data from 100 or more days before the election, while most of the major forecasts update their data every day until the election. This would seem like it would give other forecasts an advantage, but this was not the case. As the states were being called on election night, I noticed our forecast aligned with each outcome. By the end of election night, we had all of the states right.
Enns' model focuses on economic conditions and president approval ratings as key factors, which are common in many prediction models, but the model extrapolates individual information from national polls back as far as 1980...to develop numerous simulations and final forecasts on a state-by-state level.
Their model was the most accurate of the group, both in terms of the overall popular vote and correctly predicting that Trump would win 312 electoral votes. This illustrates the effectiveness of the model amid the unusual strategies employed during the campaign.
If we think about this campaign, Trump did not follow conventional campaign strategy, and Harris did. Harris had more money, her campaign events generated excitement, and there were controversies at the last Trump rally in the lead-up to the election.
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