"Polymarket traders assign a slim 11% chance that bitcoin hits $150,000 by December 31, 2026. Kalshi data shows a 47% probability of bitcoin surpassing the $100,000 milestone during 2026. Total volume across major prediction markets for BTC price targets has exceeded $80 million in 2026. As of May 12, 2026, the prediction platform Polymarket has recorded a staggering $18,360,481 in total trading volume for its primary $150,000 target market."
"Data indicates that the probability of bitcoin (BTC) hitting the $150,000 milestone by June 30, 2026, is a negligible 1%. This specific timeline has seen $15,734,008 in volume, suggesting that while the money is there, the confidence is not. Traders are slightly more optimistic about a long-term play, though the numbers are still far from a sure bet. The odds for bitcoin reaching the same $150,000 target by December 31, 2026, currently sit at 11% on Polymarket, with nearly $291,903 in volume backing that specific year-end timeline."
"These markets rely on the Binance BTC/ USDT one-minute candle data for resolution, requiring a high price of at least $150,000 to trigger a payout. Alternative platforms like Opinion show a similar trend of skepticism for the immediate future as well. In that venue, the Yes outcome for a June 30, 2026 milestone is trading at 15.5 cents, representing a 2% chance of success. However, the total cumulative volume on Opinion for BTC price trajectory markets has climbed to over $32.4 million, signaling that liquidity is deep even if confidence in a massive rally is thin."
"For the December 31, 2026, deadline on Opinion, the odds sit marginally higher at 10.4% with over $1 million in volume. On the Limitless prediction market platform, which hosts a market that tracks the potential for a new all-time high on Binance by specific dates, the outlook is even more conservative"
Polymarket assigns an 11% probability that Bitcoin reaches $150,000 by December 31, 2026, with $18,360,481 in total trading volume for that target market. The probability of hitting $150,000 by June 30, 2026 is 1%, with $15,734,008 in volume supporting that timeline. Kalshi data indicates a 47% probability of Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 during 2026. Resolution depends on Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle data, requiring a price of at least $150,000 for payout. Opinion shows 2% odds for June 30, 2026 and 10.4% odds for December 31, 2026, alongside $32.4 million and over $1 million in cumulative volume, respectively. Liquidity remains strong even as confidence in a major rally stays limited.
Read at news.bitcoin.com
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