Kevin Warsh Confirmed as Fed Chair: The 5 Things That Could Decide How Bitcoin Reacts

"Warsh is the first Fed Chair to own crypto personally and has called Bitcoin "the new gold for people under 40." But he's also one of the most hawkish Fed officials since the financial crisis, especially on quantitative easing. Trump wants him to cut rates right away. After today's hot inflation reading, markets are pricing roughly 39% odds of a rate hike instead of cuts."

"Here's where it gets complicated: Warsh is the first Fed Chair to own crypto personally and has called Bitcoin "the new gold for people under 40." But he's also one of the most hawkish Fed officials since the financial crisis, especially on quantitative easing. Trump wants him to cut rates right away. After today's hot inflation reading, markets are pricing roughly 39% odds of a rate hike instead of cuts."

"Polymarket, the prediction market, puts the odds of no rate cut at his first FOMC meeting at 97%. Trump has been turning up the pressure before the confirmation. He told CNBC he'd be "disappointed if Warsh doesn't cut rates right away," and publicly joked he'd "sue Warsh" if he doesn't. That level of pressure on day one is unprecedented for a Fed Chair, and Warsh has to choose his first words carefully."

"April's CPI came in at 3.8% yesterday-the highest since May 2023-and this morning, April's PPI hit 6% year over year, which is the highest since December 2022. takes the chair against the worst possible inflation backdrop for a dovish opening pitch. Polymarket, the prediction market, puts the odds of no rate cut at his first FOMC meeting at 97%."

Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Fed Chair in a 54-45 vote, replacing Jerome Powell on May 15, with his first FOMC meeting scheduled for June 16-17. Bitcoin is trading just under $80,000 after a hot PPI report broke $80,000 support. Warsh is the first Fed Chair to own crypto personally and has described Bitcoin as “the new gold for people under 40,” while also being among the most hawkish officials since the financial crisis, particularly on quantitative easing. Markets are pricing about 39% odds of a rate hike rather than cuts following the inflation data. His first speech and tone on inflation are expected to strongly influence expectations for rate policy and Bitcoin’s near-term direction.

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