Countries May Shift Gold Reserves To Bitcoin: Gemini

"Liou predicts that Bitcoin may end 2026 with a negative return, challenging the traditional four-year cycle that has historically guided investor expectations. According to Liou, the market's maturation - characterized by new participants, regulated investment vehicles, and deeper liquidity - has reduced volatility. He noted that recent pullbacks have been far smaller than in previous cycles, with Bitcoin down roughly 30% from its highs rather than the 75-90% declines seen historically. Structural changes, including lower implied volatility in options markets, signal a broader investor base and a more durable bull case for the asset."

"Liou expects both major U.S. political parties to increasingly court the crypto community in the lead-up to the 2026 midterms. While Republicans were the first to engage crypto voters in 2024, Democrats are anticipated to follow suit. Liou highlighted the stalled Market Structure bill as a key legislative focus, predicting its passage in early 2026 with bipartisan support. Candidates in swing states such as Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Michigan are also expected to include crypto policy in their campaign agendas. Prediction markets, which leverage crowd-sourced insights to forecast outcomes, are poised for growth, Liou said. Such platforms aim to reward informed forecasting while providing more accurate market intelligence."

Bitcoin may end 2026 with a negative return, challenging the historical four-year cycle. Market maturation — with new participants, regulated investment vehicles, deeper liquidity, and lower implied volatility in options — has reduced downside volatility, producing smaller pullbacks (around 30% from highs versus historical 75–90% declines). Both U.S. political parties are expected to court crypto voters ahead of the 2026 midterms, and the Market Structure bill is predicted to pass with bipartisan support in early 2026. Prediction markets leveraging crowd-sourced insights are poised for growth. Digital-asset treasury companies are expected to consolidate after a wave of DAT launches.

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