"The popular case for Bitcoin is that it is hard money that can't be deflated by political actors or central banks. When the world is going to hell economically, it makes sense to store your wealth in a scarce decentralized asset that can't be tampered with by corporations or governments. "Bitcoin solves this," as they say. It's a compelling story but, as with many great tales, it's mostly fiction."
"Despite ad campaigns to brand Bitcoin as digital gold and infinite HODL memes, the reality has been that, when the economy takes a nosedive, so does crypto. It's a "risk-on" asset class that people dump at the first sign of trouble, along with junk bonds and emerging markets funds. That's been Bitcoin-until recently, that is."
"In 2025, the original case for Bitcoin-that it is a safe haven in times of trouble-could be coming true at last. First, during the Liberation Day tariff shock in April, the price of Bitcoin actually climbed even as the stock market plunged. That divergence was fairly short-lived but, since then, Bitcoin has behaved in an uncorrelated fashion to equities on several more occasions."
Bitcoin recently crossed above $125,000 and betting markets place roughly a 60% probability of it exceeding $130,000 by Halloween. Over the last 13 Octobers Bitcoin posted gains in 10 years. Historically Bitcoin fell with other risk assets during market stress, but 2025 has shown divergence: Bitcoin rose during the Liberation Day tariff shock even as stocks plunged and has on multiple occasions behaved uncorrelated to equities. Demand for both Bitcoin and gold surged during a U.S. government shutdown as dollars and Treasuries weakened. Continued safe-haven behavior could challenge gold and draw scrutiny to Bitcoin's stewards.
Read at Fortune Crypto
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