"Bitcoin Price Prediction Markets have become an emerging tool for gauging sentiment and price expectations in real time. Traders on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi wager on Bitcoin's future price outcomes, producing aggregated odds that reflect where market participants believe BTC is heading. As trading volumes expand and odds shift with volatility, these prediction markets are gaining credibility as a forward-looking sentiment gauge for the Bitcoin economy."
"In early October, traders on Polymarket were betting that BTC would close 2025 around $144,000, but as volatility picked up and BTC dipped, that forecast has since slipped closer to $129,000. These odds update in real time, meaning they reflect the collective positioning and sentiment of thousands of participants and millions of dollars. By tracking the ratio between BTC's spot price and the predicted year-end price, clear sentiment trends begin to emerge."
Prediction markets on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi aggregate wagers into real-time odds that reflect collective expectations for Bitcoin prices. Example forecasts moved from about $144,000 to $129,000 for year-end 2025 as volatility rose and prices fell. Comparing BTC's spot price to predicted year-end prices reveals sentiment: large gaps often indicate fear and undervaluation, while small gaps suggest overheating and proximity to local peaks. Normalizing for prediction volatility across the year sharpens these signals, with extreme percentile gaps historically aligning with market lows and highs. Reported accuracy rates near 91% fall to about 71% after removing extreme outlier markets.
Read at Bitcoin Magazine
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