Bitcoin exhibited strength against a hawkish CPI report and strong inflation data seeing only a retracement back down to $67,000 following the fed minutes announcement. The drop of -2% from Monday's retest of $73,000 showcases risk assets, including BTC, pricing in two rate cuts instead of three for the remainder of 2024. - Semir Gabeljic, Capital Formation at Pythagoras Investments
Twenty-six percent of bettors have put money on there being one cut, while 28% believe there will be two cuts, and 21% bet on no cuts at all. Bettors on Polymarket evenly split on number of rate cuts by end of 2024.
The implied volatility of options expiring on April 26th is still trading at a premium while recent historical volatility is still trending down, noted Jun-Young Heo, derivative trader at Presto.
On-chain data shows that outflow from GBTC is at $18 million, the lowest since the launch of the U.S. bitcoin ETFs. Market participants watching closely to determine if GBTC outflows will continue decreasing. - Checkonchain
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