A Highly Correlated Earnings Day
Briefly

A Highly Correlated Earnings Day
"With Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) earnings on the horizon at 4pm EST today, it seems that nearly all markets are desperately waiting for the behemoth to let us all know how they did, and what they think the future will hold. Without any major macro events for quite some time, BTC's near term price action will be foreshadowed by the Q3 earnings call, as BTC has had quite a significant correlation to NVDA in the past few years."
"Unfortunately, the wider crypto market is experiencing similar price action. Over the past 7 days, Solana is down over 15%, trading in the $130's, levels we haven't seen since June of this year. Sentiment continues to get worse by the day on socials, and derivative markets are less than favorable for SOL. Across multiple major exchanges, Solana's perpetual funding rate is sharply negative, indicating very high open interest on the short side, where traders who are short must pay longs."
Bitcoin recently dropped below $90,000, erasing an earlier rally and leaving near-term momentum uncertain. Nvidia's Q3 earnings and management commentary at 4pm EST stand as the most immediate market catalyst given a historically strong correlation with Bitcoin. Correlation rose above 0.80 in 2024 and reached approximately 0.96 rolling over the past three months, linking NVDA price moves to BTC direction. Positive after-hours reaction to Nvidia could lift Bitcoin, while disappointing commentary or price weakness could exacerbate Bitcoin declines. The broader crypto market mirrors this weakness: Solana fell over 15% to the low $130s, with sharply negative perpetual funding rates signaling heavy short-side positioning.
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