Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered in 2024, had a fluctuating collision probability with Earth, escalating to 3% before reducing to 1.5%. Experts state such changes are typical as more data is gathered, refining predictions. While initially data can only suggest a small risk, increased observational clarity can bring the impact chance down to zero. NASA representatives emphasize that the situation does not warrant significant concern for the public at this stage, although monitoring will continue as new information becomes available.
"But the impact probability remains small, so people should not really be too concerned about that," said Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the Center for Near Earth Object Studies.
"You cannot rule out the possible collision with Earth, [but] at some point the probability will go to zero," Farnocchia said.
With more observational data, astronomers' predictions of the asteroid's trajectory and future location become more precise.
The probability of colliding with Earth increased to approximately 3%, then dropped to 1.5%, highlighting the fluctuating nature of asteroid impact probabilities.
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