"Cease may be the biggest wild card of the free agent class. He entered the season as the presumptive top pitcher. A repeat of his fourth-place Cy Young season from 2024 would've positioned him for a $225-250MM contract. He instead had an uneven platform season, finishing with a 4.55 earned run average across 168 innings. His past four seasons have alternated between top five Cy Young finishes (2022, '24) and years with an ERA closer to 5.00 than to 4.00 (2023, '25)."
"The positives are obvious. Cease has not missed a start in four years. He's eighth in MLB in innings going back to the start of 2022. He has top-of-the-rotation stuff headlined by a fastball that sits above 97 MPH. It's the seventh-highest average fastball speed among starters. This year's 29.8% strikeout rate was right in line with the swing-and-miss numbers he posted during his ace-caliber seasons. Among pitchers with 100+ innings, only Tarik Skubal had a higher swinging strike rate."
"All that said, Cease's camp is going to have an uphill battle pushing for a $200MM+ contract for a pitcher coming off a second mediocre ERA in three years. The Phillies re-signed Aaron Nola for seven years and $172MM coming off a 4.46 ERA a few years back, but Nola was a more reliable source of innings. Cease has been durable but is generally inefficient and only averaged 5.25 innings per start this year. He didn't work beyond six frames after June 21."
Dylan Cease entered the season as the presumptive top pitcher but finished with a 4.55 ERA across 168 innings, marking another inconsistent campaign. His four-season track record alternates between top-five Cy Young finishes and years with ERAs nearer 5.00. Cease has notable positives: he has not missed a start in four years, ranks eighth in MLB innings since 2022, and features a fastball averaging above 97 MPH. His 29.8% strikeout rate aligns with ace-level swing-and-miss production. Concerns include inefficiency, a 5.25 innings-per-start average in 2025, and diminished length after June 21, all of which complicate $200M+ market expectations.
Read at MLB Trade Rumors
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