Tesla and Waymo are competing to establish robotaxi fleets, yet analysts from HSBC believe the market potential is significantly overestimated. They argue that while robotaxis eliminate driver wage expenses, there are hidden costs such as parking, vehicle charging, cleaning, and the necessity for remote operators. These factors will delay profit margins, with forecasts indicating that robotaxis may not break even for 7-8 years post-launch. The analysts criticize optimistic revenue predictions made by industry leaders, labeling them as unrealistic amid prevailing skepticism.
HSBC analysts found that it could take years for robotaxis to turn a profit, stressing the market is 'overestimated' and highlighting overlooked costs like parking and cleaning.
The idea that robotaxis would be more profitable than human-driven counterparts is based on a misconception, as driverless taxis face significant overlooked extra costs that cut into profits.
When we factor in these costs, we believe robotaxis won't be break-even on a cash flow basis until 7-8 years after launch, with revenue projections ranging from the 'ambitious to the unrealistic.'
Despite the massive claims about robotaxis from industry figures, there is skepticism regarding their true profitability, as shown by the caution shared by HSBC analysts.
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