AI poised to tilt job market leverage toward older workers | Fortune

"More than 40% of CEOs plan to cut junior roles over the next one to two years and shift the composition of their workforce toward mid-level or senior positions, while only 17% plan to make junior roles a bigger part of the mix, according to a global survey by Oliver Wyman. The numbers are essentially flipped from just a year ago."

"“I think the junior level is definitely finding it harder now to enter the workforce,” said John Romeo, who leads the consulting firm's research arm, the Oliver Wyman Forum. “It's those mid- and senior-level employees that CEOs are now looking at to drive productivity.”"

"Companies are saying, “I need someone who's actually done this before because her experience, her wisdom, her critical thinking and the fact that she solved these problems makes her much more valuable,” said consultant and lecturer Ravin Jesuthasan, who has written multiple books on the future of work."

"The Oliver Wyman survey results build on findings from a Harvard University study showing that firms adopting generative AI have significantly reduced junior-level positions, while keeping senior employment largely stable. Foregoing younger talent now in favor of AI agents comes with significant risks, though, as it may leave companies with a shortage of experienced workers in the future, according to Helen Leis, global head of leadership and change at Oliver Wyman."

More than 40% of CEOs plan to cut junior roles over the next one to two years and increase the share of mid-level or senior positions, while only 17% plan to expand junior roles. The shift reflects the kinds of tasks AI agents can perform, including coding at a junior level and evaluating sales leads. Many fields still require judgment calls grounded in on-the-job experience, which AI agents often cannot replicate. Companies therefore seek experienced employees for critical thinking, problem solving, and decision-making. Survey findings align with research showing generative AI adoption reduces junior positions while keeping senior employment more stable. Risks include future shortages of experienced workers if younger talent is deferred.

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