The worst-case scenario is pretty bleak. Basically, tariffs are harmful to U.S. agriculture, and to California agriculture in particular, because they will invite tariff retaliation.
If the Trump administration were to impose large tariffs under the most extreme scenario, retaliatory measures by other countries would have a ripple effect across the state.
The researchers noted that California's farmers previously experienced financial losses during Trump's first administration, when the adoption of U.S. tariffs in 2018 prompted China to retaliate.
Certain California agricultural exports could see their value reduced by up to one-fourth, bringing as much as $6 billion in losses annually.
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