Reports immediately after the disaster raised the possibility that the Bayesian had been hit by a tornado-like disturbance called a waterspout. However, authorities do not believe that a waterspout was the cause. What remains evident is that wind conditions were perilous; the wind was changing direction unpredictably. Nearby weather data showed a tumultuous wind pattern changing from west-southwest to north-northwest, increasing the chance of sudden, damaging gusts that can affect even large vessels.
The situation highlights the volatility of maritime weather conditions. As winds shifted directions rapidly, the likelihood of encountering an unexpected gust becomes significantly high, which poses a danger, particularly for large boats like the Bayesian. The sudden tilt caused by such a gust can lead to loss of stability, resulting in disastrous consequences, as illustrated by the sinking of the superyacht, even though the exact cause remains undetermined.
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