This morning's UK GDP report pointed to the economy unexpectedly stagnating in July, notching no growth for the second straight month. This reflects a downturn, particularly when compared to an earlier growth period.
While the July stagnation doesn't paint the rosiest picture of economic conditions during the summer, it is somewhat at odds with the backdrop signalled by other surveys such as the more timely PMI surveys.
Downside risks, however, are clearly growing, particularly ahead of the imminent fiscal tightening in October's Budget poses a significant downside risk to this view, particularly amid early signs that both business and consumer sentiment are already being pressured.
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