Currently, 45% of the recession indicators we tracked have been triggered. Going back to 1999, that's never happened without a recession occurring.
What is the best recession indicator? That's a hard question to answer - why not dodge it completely and just look at all of them?
The 'indicator of indicators' indicates recession. Some of the recession signals that have flashed include the Sahm Rule, the Leading Economic Indicator Index, and the inverted yield curve.
The list of signals flashing has steadily risen since 2022, when only 10% were triggered. That rose to about 25% in 2023.
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