Goldman Sachs' recession forecast has fluctuated from 15% to 25% and now sits at 20%, influenced by recent retail sales and jobs data.
The Goldman prediction is inflation enough that it is carefully watched by the stock market, but should it be? A single jobs report added to weak or strong retail sales seems a poor foundation.
The Conference Board's experts recently wrote, 'Recent financial market gyrations notwithstanding, the US is likely not on the cusp of recession.' It expects economic activity to improve in 2025.
Economic and recession forecasts come from several prominent organizations, indicating a varied outlook depending on the source used for predictions.
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