The CBO's latest budget and economic outlook projects the net immigration of those without work authorization is on track to be 8.7 million greater than previously forecast from 2021 to 2026.
"Those increases in GDP and interest rates are key drivers of projected increases in federal revenues and spending related to the [immigration] surge," CBO Director Phillip Swagel said in a statement.
Accounting for immigrants in the estimated surge and their children, the jump in immigration rates lowers deficits by $990 billion over the 2024-2034 period, while federal revenues are higher by $1.2 trillion.
"We've seen labor force supply come up quite a bit through immigration and through recovering participation," Fed chair Jerome Powell said last week. "That's ongoing, mostly now through the immigration channel."
In its report, the CBO cites research that shows immigration has historically raised federal revenues more than it did costs. The agency suggests that might still be the case but underscores uncertainty about that.
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