My belief has always been that for the existing home sales market to have real growth and make it stick, we need sub-6% mortgage rates with some duration... rates fell toward 6%, which gave us 12 weeks of positive data and one massive existing home sales report. But then rates went up and sales headed lower... my firm belief in the rate model forced my hand to say that monthly home sales data peaked unless rates fell... purchase apps in November got more activity closer to spring months... With mortgage rates dipping again, some people anticipated something similar to what we saw toward the end of 2022 and 2023. However, as of today, we only have slightly positive data... For now, lower rates have only marginally impacted the demand.
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