Goldman Sachs believes that global investors are overestimating the risks of financial market uncertainty due to a lack of a clear winner in the upcoming US presidential election.
Goldman notes that tight polling may obscure a wider electoral college victory margin, while improvements in ballot processing will expedite vote counting compared to 2020.
According to Goldman, the majority of currency market volatility emerges during the initial vote tallies, particularly influenced by county-level results being reported.
Historically, most FX volatility happened in the first hours post-election results, stabilizing by the afternoon of the following day, even after initial fluctuations.
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