Goldman Sachs economists reduced the likelihood of a US recession in the next year to 20% from 25%, citing recent retail sales and jobless claims data.
Economists indicated if the upcoming August jobs report is 'reasonably good', they might further lower recession odds to 15%, previously held for nearly a year.
The latest economic data contributing to US resilience drove stocks to their best week of the year, with July showing the highest retail sales increase since early 2023.
Goldman economists expressed increased confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, contingent on job market reports.
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