"We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse from maintaining most tax cuts."
"Should Vice President Kamala Harris win and Democrats secure control of both chambers of Congress, new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates."
"Under a Harris victory in a divided government, the effects of policy changes would be small and neutral on net, indicating minimal impact on GDP growth."
"Goldman expects a Harris administration to oversee a slowdown in new arrivals to 1.5 million a year - still higher than the pre-pandemic average of around 1 million."
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