"One of the major warning signs that the US economy was in a recession was the 2022-2024 inverse yield curve for US Treasuries. In normal, healthy economic conditions, shorter maturities usually correlate with lower yields. This is due to the perception of lower near term interest rate fluctuations, since holding debt over a longer period is riskier due to unforeseen events that may occur in the future."
"During this inverse yield curve period, the longest in US history, confidence in the future term US economic health prospects were in doubt as a result of Bidenomics and hyper-inflation. As a result, cash was deemed more dear, since credit and payment defaults were on the rise. Translation: " Pay me now - I don't trust the money will be there later .""
An inverted US Treasury yield curve from 2022 to 2024 indicated recession signals, as longer-term yields fell below shorter-term yields. Shorter maturities normally have lower yields because longer maturities carry more unforeseen risk. The 2022–2024 inversion, the longest in US history, reflected doubts about future US economic health tied to Bidenomics and high inflation. Rising credit and payment defaults made cash more valuable, creating a preference for immediate payment. In commodities, backwardation—spot prices above futures—can signal delivery concerns, policy-driven accumulation, producer supply issues, currency debasement fears, or market manipulation. Gold and silver experienced temporary backwardation in October.
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