Can TSM's Stock Reach $600 By 2028?

TSM reported Q1 2026 revenue of $35.9 billion and a record 66.2% gross margin. AI-related demand was described as extremely robust, and high-performance computing now accounts for 61% of wafer revenue. Shares rose 26.06% year to date to $402.90, though they remain below $500 after a large one-year gain. Some valuation models estimate fair value far below the current price, citing U.S.-China tensions, supply disruptions, and margin drag from ramping N2. Consensus targets cluster around the mid-$400s, while management expects continued technology progress including A14 volume shipments and N3 expansion, supported by a multiyear AI megatrend.

"Q1 2026 revenue hit $35.9 billion with a record 66.2% gross margin, and CEO C.C. Wei told investors that "AI-related demand continues to be extremely robust." HPC alone now drives 61% of wafer revenue. Shares are up 26.06% YTD to $402.90. Can TSM hit $600 by 2028?"

"Some DCF models peg fair value at $215.69 to $254.08, suggesting shares trade 82.4% to 88.4% above intrinsic value. U.S.-China tensions, Iran war disruptions to chemical supplies, and a 2% to 3% gross margin drag from the N2 ramp weigh on sentiment. A beta of 1.264 amplifies moves in either direction. After a 108% one-year run, profit-taking is rational."

"The consensus target sits at $463.45, with 5 Strong Buy, 12 Buy, and 2 Hold ratings. Barclays raised its target to $470 and Needham to $480 after Q1. Our own 12-month view of $473.33 implies roughly 17% upside. Every one of these targets is a 12-month number."

"By 2028, TSM expects to ship A14 in volume, push N3 into Arizona and Japan, and capitalize on what management called the "multiyear AI megatrend." Wei's guidance for AI accelerator revenue is a mid- to high-50s CAGR through 2029. That math doesn't fit inside a $475 target."

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