"The firm's projections for Tesla still include an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030. In its note, BNP Paribas Exane stated that Tesla's two AI-led programs, the Robotaxi and Optimus robots, generate "zero sales today, yet inform ~75% of our ~$1.02 trillion price target." The research firm's model projected a maximum bull-case valuation of $2.7 trillion through 2040, but after discounting milestone probabilities, its base-case valuation remained at $1.02 trillion."
"The analysts described their outlook as optimistic toward Tesla's AI ventures but cautioned that the stock's "unfavorable risk/reward is clear," adding that consensus earnings expectations for 2026 remain too high. Tesla's market cap currently stands around $1.44 trillion with a trailing twelve-month revenue of $92.7 billion, which BNP Paribas argued does not justify Tesla's P/E ratio of 258.59, as noted in an Investing.com report."
BNP Paribas Exane initiated coverage on Tesla with an Underperform rating and a $307 price target, roughly 30% below current levels. The firm attributes about 75% of its ~$1.02 trillion base-case valuation to AI initiatives Robotaxi and Optimus, which currently generate no sales. The research model projects a $2.7 trillion bull-case through 2040 but discounts milestone probabilities to reach the base case. The firm projects 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030. BNP Paribas flags an unfavorable risk/reward, contends 2026 consensus earnings are too high, and finds Tesla’s market valuation aggressive relative to peers.
Read at TESLARATI
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