"With official labor data suspended by the government shutdown, analysts are leaning on private sources-and they show a weakening jobs market. Moody's Mark Zandi said September saw "essentially no job growth," with gains limited to healthcare, education, and a few large states, while ADP reported payroll losses and Glassdoor noted slowing wage growth. Economists warn that without Bureau of Labor Statistics releases, the Fed is left making policy decisions through a "keyhole view," raising the risk that conditions are worse than markets currently assume."
"Everyone from Wall Street to the Federal Reserve knows America's labor market is weakening-adding just 22,000 jobs according to the BLS's latest release for August-but are unsure by how much. Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi wrote in a note over the weekend that data from Revelio Labs, which scrapes info from professional networking sites like LinkedIn to estimate jobs growth, shows that employment increased by some 60,000 roles in September."
Official Bureau of Labor Statistics releases are suspended during the government shutdown, forcing analysts to rely on private employment indicators. Private sources show a weakening labor market with limited role additions concentrated in healthcare, education, and a few large states. Revelio Labs estimates about 60,000 September hires, while ADP reported payroll losses and Glassdoor noted slowing wage growth. Moody's labels private reporting gains as paltry and highlights that August BLS figures showed only 22,000 jobs. Financial markets are rallying despite absent data. The Federal Reserve faces a narrow informational view when setting policy, raising the risk that conditions are worse than assumed.
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