The author reflects on the challenge and complexity of baseball projections, admitting to a personal struggle with overestimating their ability to interpret data compared to expert systems. They acknowledge the limitations of projection systems, which account for various player outcomes but cannot predict the unpredictable nature of the game. Despite recognizing their own limited knowledge, the author has manually projected over 300 players for fantasy baseball, demonstrating both audacity and passion. They intend to analyze the Depth Charts projections on FanGraphs, preparing to discuss specific player projections for the upcoming season.
The projection systems must account for a wide range of possibilities and choose the most likely outcome, but the game's randomness makes it far from perfect.
I've decided to use my limited knowledge to decipher which baseball players are likely to underperform or overperform compared to established projections.
It would be incredibly conceited to believe that fans could better understand and interpret the vast data points than the experts who have honed these systems.
Despite the projection system's accuracy over millions of data points, my personal experience in manual projection shows a blend of hubris and genuine love for the game.
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