The article explores the predictive capabilities of ChatGPT-4, particularly in forecasting events such as the Academy Awards and macroeconomic variables. By leveraging its training data limitations, the authors compared ChatGPT's predictions made before the events of 2022 with actual outcomes. The results indicate a disparity between the AI's predictions and real-world events, particularly highlighting the challenges of using narrative versus statistical prediction methods. The study is a novel examination of AI's potential in forecasting and its inherent constraints due to outdated training data.
"During our experiment, we exploited the fact that ChatGPT's training data was limited to information until September 2021, while we had real-world knowledge of events in 2022."
"Our approach involved comparing ChatGPT's predictions against established events in macroeconomics and cultural benchmarks such as the Academy Awards, highlighting its predictive limitations and capabilities."
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