Daron Acemoglu (MIT) asserts that based on his research, the anticipated benefits from AI might not live up to the hype, estimating only a modest 0.5% increase in productivity and a mere 1% lift in GDP over the next decade, largely due to the complexities of fully harnessing AI’s capabilities. He emphasizes the slow pace of economic transformation, suggesting that the costs involved in automating tasks through AI will not yield substantial benefits in the near term.
Joseph Briggs from Goldman Sachs holds a more encouraging outlook, stating that AI has the potential to automate about 25% of all work tasks, which could translate into a significant 9% boost in US productivity and a 6.1% increase in GDP over the next ten years. He points to the ongoing trend of decreasing technology costs as a crucial factor that could lead to substantial long-term benefits from AI investments.
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