"As the government closes the book on another year of tech upheaval, it's worth remembering that trends rarely unfold in straight lines. Some evolve slowly until they explode, others quietly creep into operations until one day everyone wonders how they ever lived without them. In 2026, we're likely to see three such developments in federal technology. One seems obvious until it isn't. One finally gets measured the way leaders say they want it."
"Now, it's worth noting that my 2025 predictions were pretty big swings, as were the ones the year before. But 2026 is probably not going to be a year of dramatic breakthroughs. Instead, we will see many of the innovations of previous years finally making inroads into government service. Specifically, AI will no longer be a novelty, zero trust won't be an aspiration and simulations will evolve beyond just something that is nice to have."
AI will move from novelty to ubiquitous assistant across federal operations, becoming routinely cited in budgets, memos, and processes even when its workings remain imperfectly understood. Zero trust will shift from an aspirational principle to a measurable, implemented posture that leaders evaluate against concrete metrics. Simulations will mature into essential rehearsal environments that validate new systems and surface risks before deployment. The overall trajectory emphasizes more automation, clearer measurement of outcomes, and extensive rehearsal prior to commitment, with incremental adoption and occasional missteps but steady integration of prior innovations into day-to-day government service.
Read at Nextgov.com
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