China sales for Nvidia face significant uncertainty due to changing U.S. export controls and recent policy reversals. Third-quarter revenue projections differ by roughly $15 billion, twice the second-quarter spread and the largest percentage divergence in at least a decade. U.S. limits on advanced AI chip sales began in 2022, followed by a halt in April and a recent reversal conditioned on the U.S. receiving 15% of proceeds. Beijing has reportedly urged local companies to avoid Nvidia’s H20 processors. Analysts disagree on including China revenue, with some excluding H20 sales and others estimating up to a $3 billion boost. Chipmakers' share prices have reacted to unclear China guidance.
(Bloomberg/Carmen Reinicke) Nvidia Corp.'s China sales have taken on new levels of complexity, and investors will be hoping for a clearer read when the chipmaker reports earnings Wednesday afternoon. The firm's on-again, off-again sales in the word's largest market for semiconductors have been a source of confusion for Wall Street. Third-quarter revenue projections for the company are roughly $15 billion apart, twice the difference between the highest and lowest estimates in the second quarter and the widest in percentage terms in at least a decade,
Nvidia's China revenues have been an issue since the Biden administration restricted the sale of advanced artificial intelligence chips in the country in 2022. But they've been further complicated under President Donald Trump, who stopped chip sales to China in April, then reversed the order earlier this month on the condition that the US government gets 15% of the proceeds. And now Beijing is reportedly urging local companies to avoid using Nvidia's less-advanced H20 processors.
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